The sentiment around private markets at the recent ACG DealMAX conference in Las Vegas was optimistic, though cautious and measured. As sponsors, lenders, and advisors discussed potential paths forward, one common theme stuck with us – You can’t model a question mark. This, with lots of discussion to follow, summed up the environment in which private market firms are now operating.
The combination of geopolitical uncertainty, tariffs, fluctuating interest rates and shifting signals coming out of Washington has turned the dealmaking landscape upside down – like doing a puzzle in the dark with pieces missing. Forecasting is harder, exits are harder, and deploying capital is harder. For firms that want to succeed, however, sitting on the sidelines is not an option.
While you can’t model ambiguity, you can compete in today’s marketplace, treating uncertainty not as an excuse to wait, but as a reason to lean in. A fragmented, competitive market can reward firms that stand out from the pack by relaying what they are seeing and their strategy to address the uncertainty.
The first step is to stop waiting for a return to normal. The firms that wait will continue to wait. Firms that have accepted volatility can remain at the center of the collective conversation, and build awareness and brand equity.
Connections, relationships, and memorability matter as much as capital and performance in this environment. The middle market is full of firms saying they are value-added partners with flexible capital and long-term horizons. Buyers, sellers, intermediaries, company leaders and LPs want to know what an organization stands for, what it brings to the table, and what it does that others do not.
Some firms do this by doubling down on operational expertise. DealMAX featured examples of firms using AI to automate workflows, improve underwriting, and drive efficiencies. Others offer employee ownership programs to impact engagement, retention and productivity. These business strategies offer clear, measurable benefits and competitive advantages. Firms that don’t tell these stories are missing an opportunity to stand out.
Differentiation through branding and communications only works if it is consistent and visible. Too often, firms assume their track record or network will speak for itself, but there’s a strong sentiment that it’s no longer enough. Private market players earn awareness through consistent, strategic thought leadership and sharing firm news, often in new and creative ways. They highlight real world examples of creating value and building trust.
Building credibility
Brand building in private markets does not mean hype or spin. It means standing for something that is authentic, resonant, and differentiating , and sharing it in a credible and consistent way. Navigating the boundaries of what is permissible under securities regulations is important, but not a reason to remain silent. Firms leading with the purpose of education and insight rather than just promotion can strengthen their market presence while staying within regulatory guardrails.
The firms doing this well will be the first contacted when new opportunities arise. They’ll win deals not just on price, but on reputation and being viewed as steady, thoughtful partners in a market that rewards clarity.
This approach extends to fundraising as well. As limited partners become more selective, strong historical returns are not enough. LPs are asking questions about process, governance, value creation, and team dynamics. More than ever, a firm’s ability to articulate its edge is a meaningful differentiator.
Leadership, strategy, execution, and results will always matter most, but in a market full of question marks, perception matters more than ever. Uncertainty is not going away, but it should not mean standing still. Now is the time to adapt, communicate and invest in the intangible assets that drive tangible results.